The World Meteorological Organization says the current El Niño may rank among the strongest recorded since 1950.
The WMO’s latest bulletin warns that the tropical Pacific warming is accelerating at an unprecedented rate and is projected to reach its apex before the end of December. If the trend holds, this episode could become one of the most intense El Niño events of the past seven decades, pushing global average temperatures higher and heightening the likelihood of extreme weather worldwide.
El Niño’s influence spreads far beyond the Pacific, shaping climate patterns across continents. Historically, powerful iterations have sparked scorching heatwaves in South Asia, drought conditions in parts of Africa, and torrential rains that trigger floods in the Americas. The coming surge is therefore expected to amplify these risks, pressuring water supplies, agricultural output, and disaster response systems.
For Pakistan, the timing is critical. The country’s monsoon season traditionally begins in July and peaks in August, but an intense El Niño can delay onset, weaken rainfall in the north‑west, and intensify downpours in the south‑eastern river basins. Such a shift could jeopardise wheat sowing in Punjab, exacerbate heat stress in Sindh and Balochistan, and raise the spectre of flash floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Indus floodplain. Early warning agencies are therefore urged to integrate the new forecasts into their seasonal outlooks and preparedness plans.
The United Nations has called on all nations to closely monitor the evolving situation and to accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures. Strengthening early‑warning networks, safeguarding vulnerable communities, and bolstering climate‑resilient infrastructure are highlighted as essential steps to cushion the anticipated blows.
As the planet’s climate system shows increasing volatility, the looming El Niño underscores the urgent need for coordinated global action and locally tailored strategies to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems.